The Global Offshore Wind Industry Poised for Rebound in 2025

The global offshore wind industry is expected to bounce back in 2025, with significant capacity additions and sector-wide expenditure on the horizon. According to a recent report by Rystad Energy, capacity additions are projected to reach 19GW, with sector-wide expenditure estimated to hit $80bn.

Recovery and Resurgence

After a slowdown at the end of last year, where new installations dropped to approximately 8GW, 2GW lower than the previous year, the industry is now poised for a resurgence. This recovery is being driven by a record wave of lease auctions, with mainland China leading the way by accounting for 65% of new capacity.

Rystad Energy believes that total additions in 2025 will surpass previous peak years, exceeding the 7.7GW added in 2024, 10.2GW in 2023, and 9.3GW in 2022.

Record Lease Auctions

A record 55GW of offshore wind capacity was offered in lease auctions globally in 2024, excluding mainland China. However, not all this capacity has been awarded yet. For instance, the US saw no bids for its 3GW floating wind auction in Oregon, while the Gulf of Maine auction awarded roughly 7GW of the 13GW offered.

Despite the record offerings in 2024, Rystad Energy projects a decline in lease auction openings in 2025, with an expected 30-40GW available. This level is aligned with what was seen in 2021 and 2022.

Challenges and Opportunities

While 2025 is expected to be a robust year for the global offshore wind industry, there are challenges that could affect its growth trajectory. The US federal policy, in particular, has created uncertainty and hindered offshore wind development.

President Donald Trump’s executive order halting new leasing and approvals on the Outer Continental Shelf has led to project delays and a decline in project approvals in 2024. Despite these challenges, developers are pushing forward with projects like Red Rock Power and ESB’s Inch Cape in the UK, Equinor’s Empire Wind 1 in the US, and more.

Future Outlook

Rystad Energy predicts that the UK, Poland, and Germany will lead a surge in European final investment decisions (FIDs) in 2025, with several projects in these countries on track for approval. Poland is expected to see major wind farms like Baltyk II and III reach FID, following recent developments in the region.

Overall, the global offshore wind industry is set for growth and recovery in 2025, with new capacity additions and sector-wide expenditure painting a positive picture for the future.