The current geopolitical situation in the Middle East is tense, with significant implications for global maritime security. The three main actors involved in the tussle have different naval capacities, defence doctrines and strategies, which will be discussed in this article.
The U.S Navy, the most powerful navy in terms of technological prowess and capacity, faces challenges of sustained deployment and the changing nature of asymmetric warfare. Iran has the advantage of its geography and its power of sea denial and diverse missile arsenal, meanwhile Israel is an Island Economy dependent on maritime trade, and prioritises coastal defence and deterrence, but faces difficulties in securing distant sea lanes of trade.
A potential naval conflict between Israel, Iran and the U.S would likely involve Iran attacking shipping and infrastructure, with the U.S Navy trying to maintain sea control and project power, along with Israel taking defensive and retaliatory measures.
This situation would lead to global inflation, as war risk premiums, fuel costs and general operational costs of shipping would skyrocket, making consumers the ultimate victims of a war they did not sign up for.
Seafarers and ships would be exposed to the dangers of sailing in high-risk areas like the Red Sea, Eastern Mediterranean and the Strait of Hormuz, where Iran-backed Houthis have attacked shipping for a long time, due to Israeli attacks on Gaza, which have killed thousands of civilians.
The above-mentioned waterways are critical maritime chokepoints which handle a majority of international trade. Strait of Hormuz is at the forefront at the moment, given Iran’s threats to close the waterway in retaliation for U.S missile attacks on its nuclear sites.
Such a drastic step could be catastrophic, as 35% of global crude oil and 20% of LNG pass through the Hormuz. The U.S has responded by deploying naval missions like Operation Prosperity Guardian and Operation Aspides to secure trade routes.
The U.S military presence in the Middle East has also increased. There are currently 40,000 troops in strategic U.S naval and military bases in the region.
Capabilities and Naval Doctrine
For the year 2025, the U.S Navy’s deployable force is projected at 287 vessels, including 12 aircraft, 67 submarines, 113 surface combatants and 31 amphibious ships. While the U.S Navy aims for a bigger fleet, it faces near-term contraction with 19 existing vessels to be retired in 2025, including 10 before their expected service lives end and only 6 new battle force ships procured. This trajectory is evidence of a temporary shrinkage in the fleet by 2027 before it can grow again.
The core of U.S naval power lies in its nuclear-powered aircraft carriers of the Ford-class, which are unmatched globally.
As of June 2025, four U.S. aircraft carriers are deployed overseas, including the USS Nimitz and USS Carl Vinson in the Middle East.
The U.S Navy is a force to reckon with and is investing to maintain its edge with advancements in electromagnetic aircraft launching systems or EMALS, advanced arresting gear for carriers to enhance flight deck efficiency, investments in robotic and autonomous systems, including Artificial intelligence for information gathering, surveillance, and crewless USVs to carry sensors, fuel and weapons. These ships can operate in outer rings around manned vessels to detect threats and reduce casualties in case of a naval war or conflict.
Iran has a regular Iranian Navy and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy. The former operates large and conventional warships, including destroyers like Zulfiqar, Sahand, and Zagros, as well as frigates such as Alphand, Moj-class, and amphibious assault ships and corvettes. It has 19 to 27 submarines, including the old Tariq-class, which can launch cruise missiles and lay mines, indigenous Fateh-class and Ghadir-class for special operations and surprise attacks near the shore. There are Nahang-class subs as well for special forces transport.
The latter, abbreviated IRGCN, has fast missile boats like Houdong, Peykaap II and MK 13. The nation’s cruise missile program has advanced and includes Abu Mahdi missile with a range exceeding 1000 km, which is expected to be operational by this year’s end, designed for anti-ship and land-attack missions and a supersonic cruise missile with a 2000 km range.
Iran’s naval doctrine is ‘guerrilla warfare at sea’, wherein it avoids direct confrontation but relies on surprise attacks, ambushes and hit and run operations to inflict casualties on the enemy. The confined space of the Persian Gulf and the narrow Strait of Hormuz play to Tehran’s strengths, limiting the manoeuvrability of large warships like aircraft carriers or destroyers. However, technologically, Iran’s naval capabilities are weaker than U.S.
The Israeli Navy boasts a small and capable fleet with 59 units in active inventory as of 2025. Its main strength comes from its missile corvettes, especially the Sa’ar class. The new Sa’ar 6 corvettes make up about 25% of its strength, displace 2000 tonnes, and include new weapons detection and countermeasure systems, including a C-dome air defence system. It also has 8 missile boats and 45 patrol vessels.
Israel has 5 to 6 Dolphin-class submarines built in Germany to carry Popeye Turbo cruise missiles with a range of over 1500 km, with a nuclear strike capacity.
Israel’s naval doctrine is influenced by its economic and geopolitical realities. As an island economy, 99% of its international trade passes through seaports, making maritime security an existential necessity.
Israel’s Navy focuses on coastal defence, protecting its interests at sea, preventing naval blockades by adversaries and defending its Mediterranean coastline and offshore natural gas facilities that could be targeted at times of conflict or war.
The Israel Navy has critical vulnerabilities, not to mention its small fleet and the lack of logistics to maintain a sustained presence far from its shores.
Securing freedom of navigation in the Red Sea or even the Bab el Mandeb has been a historic difficulty, and analysts have doubted its ability to protect national shipping crossing south.
The Red Sea remains exposed to Houthis backed by Iran, and attacks on ships in the strategic waterway have impacted shipping to Eilat, leading to economic losses for the port.
Though Israel has high-tech weapons and a secure supply from the U.S., it lacks an operational doctrine and sufficient resources for sustained distant operations, a major weakness. If naval operations are not enough to counter maritime threats, Israel could resort to escalating conflicts into other spheres like cyberattacks or special operations or air power, which could broaden the conflict.
Conclusion
A potential naval conflict between the U.S, Israel and Iran would be a complex and multi-domain confrontation. The U.S Navy, with its superior technology, global power projection capacity, would dominate in terms of conventional force.
Meanwhile, Iran would use its asymmetrical warfare and tactics of blocking major waterways and maritime chokepoints to its advantage, leveraging its strategic geography. Iran could also inflict unacceptable costs on its enemies and their infrastructure, since it is willing to accept casualties.
Israel depends on maritime trade and help from the U.S and its allies for maintaining its position, given its small fleet. Its corvettes and submarines provide coastal defence and deterrence but have limited blue water capabilities.
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