The Impact of New Tariffs on U.S. Imports: NRF Outlook
With new tariffs affecting international trade, the National Retail Federation (NRF) has released its outlook for U.S. imports for the year 2025. The NRF projects a decrease of 5.6 percent or 1.4 million TEU compared to last year, citing the pressure from tariffs as a major factor.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, retail imports for the first half of the year saw a 3.6 percent year-over-year increase, totaling 12.53 million TEUs at major U.S. ports. However, as reciprocal tariffs take effect and trade agreements are implemented, the NRF anticipates a decline in import volumes starting in August, with sharper decreases in the fall.
Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, emphasizes the impact of tariffs on consumer prices and the availability of goods on store shelves. He stresses the need for trade agreements that lower tariffs to benefit businesses, especially small enterprises.
Looking ahead, the NRF projects a spike in import volumes in July and August as retailers rush to stock up on inventory ahead of potential tariff deadlines. However, Ben Hacker of Hacker Associates predicts a downturn in trade volumes by late September, with implications for end-of-year holiday inventories and U.S. exporters facing challenges in foreign markets.
For the last four months of 2025, U.S. import volumes are expected to decline by approximately 19 to 21 percent per month, with projections ranging between 1.7 and 1.8 million TEU. This represents a significant decrease from the monthly levels seen last year.
The NRF’s preliminary estimate for the full year 2025 is imports of 24.1 million TEU at major U.S. container ports, down from 25.5 million TEUs in 2024 but showing signs of returning to pre-pandemic levels.