U.S. Net Crude Oil Imports Forecasted to Drop by 20% in 2025

According to the latest report from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. net crude oil imports are set to decrease by 20% next year, reaching their lowest level since 1971 at 1.9 million barrels per day. The decline is attributed to higher domestic production and reduced refinery demand.

Domestic Production and Refinery Activity

The EIA projects that the United States will produce 13.52 million barrels per day in 2025, a slight increase from the 13.24 million barrels per day expected in 2024. In contrast, refinery activity is expected to decrease, with refiners processing 16 million barrels per day of crude oil in 2025, down by 200,000 barrels per day compared to the previous year.

Global Oil Market Outlook

On a global scale, the EIA forecasts that oil demand will average around 104.3 million barrels per day in 2025, slightly lower than the previous estimate of 104.4 million barrels per day. Global oil output is also expected to decrease, with an average of 104.2 million barrels per day projected for 2025, down from the earlier forecast of 104.7 million barrels per day.

Price Projections

The EIA’s report also includes updated price projections for crude oil. Spot Brent crude prices are expected to average $73.58 per barrel in 2025, lower than the previous estimate of $76.06 per barrel. Meanwhile, U.S. WTI spot prices are projected to average $69.12 per barrel, down from the earlier forecast of $71.60 per barrel.

Overall, the outlook for the U.S. oil market in 2025 paints a picture of declining net imports, increased domestic production, and lower global demand. These trends are expected to have implications for both the domestic and international oil markets in the coming year.