The Uncertain Impact of Tariffs on Retailers

The ongoing back and forth of tariff implementation continues to create uncertainty for businesses, particularly in the retail sector. The National Retail Federation (NRF) has adjusted its import forecasts multiple times in response to tariff policies, with July expected to see a surge in imports as retailers rush to build inventory before the latest tariff deadline.

President Donald Trump recently announced the impending implementation of tariffs on key countries and trading partners, scheduled for August 1. However, the NRF highlights the fluid nature of the situation, with frequent changes to tariff dates and uncertainties surrounding deals, such as the one with China.

Jonathan Gold, NRF’s Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, expressed concerns about the challenges retailers face in planning for tariffs, especially small businesses without the capacity to absorb additional costs. The NRF projects a significant increase in container imports at major U.S. ports, anticipating a rebound in July and August following the delay in Chinese tariffs.

Projections and Trends

The NRF forecasts a substantial rise in container imports to 2.36 million TEU in July, an 11% increase from previous estimates. The surge in imports is driven by retailers stocking up before the tariff deadlines, with expectations of a 14% month-over-month increase between June and July.

Looking ahead, the NRF anticipates a continuation of the import uptick in August, with a 5% increase to 2.08 million TEU. However, import levels are forecasted to decline starting in September, returning to the 1.7 to 1.8 million TEU range for the remainder of 2025.

Factors Influencing Import Volumes

The NRF attributes the anticipated decline in import volumes to several factors, including elevated imports in late 2024 due to concerns about potential port strikes along the U.S. East and Gulf Coast. While a short longshoremen’s strike occurred in October, a prolonged strike was averted at the start of 2025 through an agreement between the union and terminal operators.

According to the Global Port Tracker, imports for the first half of 2025 totaled 12.63 million TEU, marking a 4.5% year-over-year increase. Despite the growth, this figure falls below the initial forecast of 12.78 million TEU made before the tariff policies were unveiled in April.

As retailers navigate the uncertainties of tariff implementation and strive to mitigate the impact on their businesses, the NRF continues to monitor trends in import volumes and provide insights for the industry.