Tackling the Global Energy Crisis: A Look into the Future

As the wheel of the energy industry’s fate keeps turning, fortune still seems to favor some sources of supply over others, despite attempts to leave them in the ground and pivot toward greener alternatives. Extracting new oil and gas is more problematic in some countries than in others, with emissions from burning fossil fuels now being required to be taken into consideration when deciding on new projects in countries like the UK. However, the world at large still runs on coal, oil, and gas, with the lion’s share of the energy mix controlled by these fuels.

The global energy crisis that befell the world in 2022 forced Europe to diversify its supplies to tackle the gas crunch threatening to wreak havoc on its energy security ecosystem, putting new safeguards in place to battle the all-time high energy prices. The world, and Europe in particular, is not out of the woods yet, as the energy market’s balance is still believed to be precarious, sometimes standing on a knife’s edge that could tip either way at any minute.

While strides have been made in curbing inflation, gas prices have not gone back to their pre-2022 levels due to rising geopolitical tensions, growing demand in Asia-Pacific, and warm weather. While it is hard to predict which, if any, of the energy scenarios being run on a loop will come to pass, shifts in the global LNG market’s arena are bound to have an impact on Europe.

Ten key energy themes to watch in 2025

➡️ Upheaval in U.S. energy playground and its impacts: S&P Global is convinced that Trump’s second term will have large impacts on overall energy policy and multiple markets, thus, it expects a scene shift to a very different path for energy and climate policy than the four-year Joe Biden presidency.

➡️ Emissions on the rise with energy demand set to outstrip clean energy supply: The energy outlook for the upcoming year pinpoints the development of sufficient green energy to meet rising demand and displace existing fossil fuel one to reverse carbon emissions growth in the energy sector.

➡️ Artificial intelligence and data centers to usher in new electricity consumption era: S&P Global predicts that an acceleration of AI adoption and data centers’ expansion will fundamentally alter the trajectory of global power demand, which will grow between 10-15% per year between now and 2030 for data centers, enabling them to account for up to 5% of total global power demand by 2030.

➡️ Nuclear energy comeback makes the cut once again: Nuclear energy, which has shown signs of gaining traction in energy markets, especially in North America, as “a reliable, stable, and carbon free source of electricity,” is increasingly being contemplated as an option to meet growing electricity demand as companies try to decarbonize their portfolio.

➡️ Clean technology race prompts China to step up its game as the West taps the brakes: China is portrayed as the largest producer and consumer of electric vehicles, batteries, solar panels, wind turbines, and green hydrogen electrolyzers with the deployment of clean energy technology remaining on the growth path.

➡️ Peak gasoline head-to-head with new refining capacity: S&P Global claims that global gasoline demand will peak in 2025, as EV adoption and gasoline vehicle efficiency gains finally catch up to economic and population-driven demand growth, notably in developing nations.

➡️ OPEC+ caught between a rock and a hard place: S&P Global claims that OPEC+ has been in a difficult position for several years to achieve its objectives of moderately high prices and increased production volumes. Thanks to strong oil production growth in the Americas, primarily the U.S., but also Canada, Guyana, and Brazil, and decelerating oil demand growth, OPEC+ has cut oil supply four times since 2022, only to see prices continue to weaken.

➡️ Next wave of LNG exports could rock the U.S. domestic gas market boat: The energy outlook notes that the global LNG market is poised for significant change in 2025 after two years of relatively limited growth, as total trade grew only 10 million metric tons (3%) relative to 2022 levels by 2024.

➡️ Coal consumption may but probably will not start to go down: While renewables installations consistently hit new record levels, global coal demand has continued to grow, hitting new records in both 2023 and 2024, even in China, where wind and solar installations have been around 300 GW in both 2023 and 2024, coal-fired generation has hit new record highs in both years.

➡️ COP as an opportunity to boost emission cuts: A new COP will begin in November 2025, returning to Brazil for the first time since the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) was established at the Rio Earth Summit in 1992.

S&P Global is adamant that a lack of ambition on new targets will redouble questions over the viability of the COP process, pushing climate down the list of countries’ strategic priorities.