Impact of Trump Tariffs on U.S. Retailers and Logistics Tracking Services
U.S. retailers and logistics tracking services for shippers are bracing for significant declines in import containers as the Trump tariffs take effect. The National Retail Federation (NRF) has released data predicting the first year-over-year decline in imports in 19 months, citing uncertainties surrounding tariffs at a crucial time in the buying cycle. Data software company Descartes reports that sourcing patterns, tariffs, and trade risks are evolving.
According to Descartes, importers have been rushing to bring goods into the United States before the tariffs are imposed. Container imports saw a 1.2 percent increase in March and a 9 percent increase year-over-year, surpassing 2.4 million TEU. Imports from China were up 5.4 percent from March to April, with significant gains from countries like Vietnam and Thailand.
Descartes also notes a direct impact on ports, with strong gains in volumes at Los Angeles and Long Beach, while volumes at Savannah and Charleston decreased as shippers prioritized faster trans-Pacific routes.
Jackson Wood, Director of Industry Strategy at Descartes, stated, “Since the new elevated tariffs do not apply to goods already in transit when implemented, the tariff impact may be reflected more significantly in May container import volumes.”
The NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, Jonathan Gold, predicts a dramatic decline in imports starting in May, with volumes expected to plateau during the summer. Retailers are pausing or canceling orders, particularly small retailers who are uncertain about future ordering.
The NRF forecasts a decline to 1.81 million TEU in May and a monthly decline of over 20 percent compared to 2024 levels. Imports have been elevated since last summer due to various factors, including anticipation of tariffs following the November elections.