The Importance of Upgrading Plankton Models for Climate Understanding
An international publication led by Plymouth Marine Laboratory highlights how upgrading current plankton models is critical to understanding the scale of global climate issues.
Plankton may be small, but they play a crucial role in powering the planet by feeding marine life and underpinning global biogeochemical cycles. However, the models used to simulate their influence on ocean ecosystems have not kept pace with developments in our understanding of biology and ecology, according to a recent publication led by PML’s Professor Kevin Flynn.
Plankton models are essential for marine ecosystem simulators, used in everything from regional resource management to climate change projections. They are vital for predicting the future of our planet and preparing for potential challenges. However, a new perspectives paper titled ‘More realistic plankton simulation models will improve projections of ocean ecosystem responses to global change’, published in the scientific journal Nature Ecology & Evolution, argues that these models need to be updated to reflect current knowledge.
In the publication, Professor Flynn and over 30 international experts emphasize the need for urgent attention from both empiricists and modelers to improve plankton models. They highlight that the current models do not adequately represent the diversity and ecological roles of plankton, which are critical for understanding how oceans respond to global change.
Professor Flynn explains, “Plankton are microscopic organisms that support the base of the marine food chain. Their biodiversity is essential, yet current models often oversimplify this complexity. Additionally, photosynthetic plankton play a significant role in producing oxygen and fixing carbon dioxide, impacting Earth’s evolution and response to climate change.”
The authors warn that using outdated models could lead to underestimating biodiversity shifts and missing key drivers of marine productivity and carbon cycling. They call for a transformation in how plankton are modeled, advocating for greater collaboration between scientists and modelers, better incorporation of ecological complexity in model design, and the development of new tools for realistic simulation.
Overall, the paper urges the scientific community to prioritize modeling in plankton ecology research and teaching, emphasizing the need for updated models to accurately predict the future of our oceans under global change. This work was supported by the UK’s Natural Environment Research Council as part of the “Simulating Plankton” project, contributing to the UN Decade of Ocean Science and the Digital Twins of the Ocean (DITTO) initiative.