Port Houston Sets Record Container Volumes, Faces Uncertainty Amid Trade War

Port Houston achieved record-breaking container volumes in March, handling 386,864 TEUs, marking a 7% increase from last year. However, the momentum faces significant headwinds as new forecasts predict a sharp downturn in U.S. imports amid the Trump Administration’s escalating global trade war.

“While March was a solid month for us, we’re watching closely for shifts in the global market and how that could impact cargo in our region in the coming months,” said The port’s CEO, Charlie Jenkins.

March’s success was primarily driven by strong export performance, with loaded exports surging 14% year-over-year to 152,857 TEUs. Import activity showed modest growth, increasing by 2%. The port’s year-to-date container volumes have surpassed 1 million TEUs through the first quarter of 2025, reaching 1,068,695, maintaining stable levels compared to the previous year.

However, the National Retail Federation’s latest Global Port Tracker report paints a concerning picture for U.S. containerized imports. The report projects May 2025 will mark the end of 19 consecutive months of inbound growth, with import volumes expected to plummet to 1.66 million TEU, representing a potentially significant 20.5% decline.

The impact of Trump’s recent ‘Liberation Day’ tariff announcement has forced a dramatic revision of earlier projections. Previous forecasts had anticipated April handling 2.13 million TEU and May reaching 2.14 million TEU. The updated outlook now predicts the first half of 2025 will see volumes of 11.73 million TEU, marking a 2.9% year-over-year decrease instead of the previously expected 5.7% growth.

Industry forecasts suggest the impact of the trade war could be severe, with import cargo volumes potentially decreasing by 20% in the second half of 2025, leading to a projected 15% decline in total annual cargo volume.

Beyond containerized cargo, Port Houston’s breakbulk sector shows resilience, particularly in steel and project cargo shipments. Steel imports demonstrated remarkable growth, increasing 26% in March compared to the previous year, with year-to-date volumes up 10% at 1,069,279 short tons.

The port’s overall performance across its eight public facilities has seen a slight decline, with total tonnage reaching 13,202,844 tons through March, representing a 2% year-to-date decrease.