Record Product Tanker Deliveries Expected in 2025, BIMCO Reveals
Product tanker newbuild deliveries are expected to reach 12 million deadweight tonnes (dwt) in 2025, with deliveries set to jump 256% compared to the 3.4 million dwt delivered in 2024, shipping association BIMCO revealed.
“At the same time, deliveries will reach a 16-year high and the second highest on record,” Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, commented.
In a separate report, Greek shipbroker Intermodal shared that while 2024 recorded the lowest number of product tanker deliveries in dwt terms since 2001, 2025 is set to mark the highest number of deliveries since 2009.
As per Intermodal, a total of 179 product tankers exceeding 10,000 dwt are anticipated to enter service in 2025, compared to 49 ships delivered last year.
Contracting and Order Book Growth
The increase in deliveries follows an increase in contracting of new ships during 2023 and 2024. During those years, 551 new ships were contracted with a capacity of 38.7 million dwt, significantly up from the yearly average of 122 ships (7.3 million dwt) recorded over the previous 10 years.
“The spike in contracting has increased the order book from 10.6m DWT at the beginning of 2023 to 41.2m DWT at the start of 2025. During the same period, the order book to fleet ratio rose from 6% to 22%,” Rasmussen said.
Segment Analysis
During the last two years, the MR segment attracted the most orders with 278 ships contracted while the LR2 segment saw the most capacity ordered with 19.2m dwt. The two segments also dominate deliveries for 2025 with 98 MRs and 52 LR2s scheduled.
Compared to the fleet size at the beginning of 2025, the scheduled deliveries will add 2%, 6%, 3% and 12% to the dwt capacity of the Handysize, MR, LR1 and LR2 fleet.
Decarbonization Challenges
Nearly 75% of the ships scheduled for delivery in 2025 were contracted during the last two years. Despite this, only 7% will be capable of using alternative fuels while another 12% are being readied for an eventual retrofit.
In the rest of the orderbook, the share of ships capable of using alternative fuels is 11%.
Impact of Recycling Activity
During the past five years, recycling activity has been slow, and the average ship age has increased by more than 2.5 years since the beginning of 2020. Continued low recycling activity would extend the lifespan of older tankers while slowing the renewal and decarbonization of the fleet.
“The low recycling activity during the past five years has created an overhang of older ships. Currently, 10% of the fleet’s capacity is comprised of ships older than 20 years. A return to normal recycling patterns would significantly increase recycling but continued Russian sanctions and Houthi attacks in the Red Sea could further delay the retirement of the oldest ships. We estimate that fleet growth will be 5-6% in 2025 while a decline in oil demand growth will likely result in product tanker demand growth ending lower,” Rasmussen concluded.
Container Shipping Record
In related news, containership deliveries recently hit a new annual record, too. A total of 410 ships with a capacity of 2.5 million TEU were delivered in the first ten months of 2024, surpassing the previous full-year high of 2.3 million TEU in 2023.