Continued Surge in Imports Expected at U.S. Ports

Retailers are ramping up their import activities, leading to a significant increase in container volumes at major U.S. ports. The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that this trend will persist as companies rush to bring merchandise into the country amidst concerns about potential disruptions such as port strikes and tariffs imposed by the new Trump administration.

The latest data from the Global Port Tracker reveals a spike in container imports, with November seeing a 14.7 percent year-over-year increase. While there was a slight dip in December compared to October, experts believe that retailers are front-loading their shipments to mitigate any potential disruptions, such as the recent International Longshoremen’s Association strike on the East Coast.

The current import volumes are surpassing NRF’s initial forecasts, indicating a sustained front-loading strategy among importers. Ben Hackett of Hackett Associates notes that the early import surge is bolstering volumes in December and early January.

In November, container imports exceeded NRF’s projections by approximately 14 percent, reaching 2.17 million TEU. Despite pending final numbers for December, NRF estimates a 19 percent increase over its forecast, projecting a volume of 2.24 million TEU.

Jonathan Gold, NRF’s Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy, attributes the import surge to the recent ILA contract agreement and concerns over potential tariff hikes under the new administration. Retailers are proactively stocking up on merchandise to avoid passing on increased costs to consumers.

With the current import momentum, NRF has revised its full-year 2024 forecast to 25.6 million TEU, a 15 percent jump from 2023 and close to the all-time record set in 2021. The organization anticipates a strong start in 2025, with double-digit year-over-year increases expected in January and March.

However, February may see a slight slowdown due to the Lunar New Year holiday in China and Asia. NRF forecasts an 8 percent increase in April and nearly 6 percent in May, indicating sustained import growth in the coming months.