Impact of Tariffs on Retail Imports in the U.S.

Retailers in the United States are facing uncertainty over tariffs and potential fees on Chinese-built ships, leading to a surge in import volumes at U.S. ports. The National Retail Federation reports that while import levels are expected to remain high in the coming months, there is a forecasted decline in second quarter imports compared to initial projections.

The NRF highlights the concerns among its members regarding the impact of tariffs and notes the elevated import levels seen in early 2025, particularly at ports like Los Angeles and Long Beach. However, following declines in consumer sales in January and February, the NRF now anticipates year-over-year drops in import volumes during the summer.

Port Tracker and Import Forecasts

The NRF’s Port Tracker monitors container volumes at major U.S. ports and has adjusted its forecasts accordingly. While the first quarter projection has been raised by 3.5 percent, the second quarter forecast has been lowered by 2.5 percent. Import volumes are expected to start declining in June and July, marking the first decrease since September 2023.

Jonathan Gold, Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy at the NRF, emphasizes that retailers are front-loading imports to mitigate tariff impacts. The uncertainty surrounding tariffs on Chinese goods and potential reciprocal tariffs pose significant challenges for the industry.

Consumer Impact and Economic Concerns

The NRF underscores that tariffs are ultimately paid by consumers, not foreign countries, leading to increased costs for American families. Economists have expressed concerns about the impact of tariffs on the economy, while President Trump remains optimistic about the trade policies’ outcomes.

In the first quarter of 2025, the NRF projects over 6.4 million TEU for imports, with significant year-over-year increases. However, import momentum is expected to slow down in the following months, with June and July forecasted to see declines in import volumes.

Future Trends and Uncertainties

As retailers navigate supply chain diversification, the NRF anticipates changes in shipping patterns and potential shifts towards larger vessels to offset port fees. The organization warns that ongoing tariff uncertainties and trade tensions are likely to impact import volumes in the coming months.

Despite the challenges posed by tariffs and trade policies, the NRF remains optimistic about the industry’s resilience and ability to adapt to changing circumstances.