Ship Recycling Set to Double in Next Decade
Ship recycling is expected to more than double in the next ten years, with approximately 16,000 ships, or 700 million deadweight tonnes (DWT), estimated to be dismantled globally. This significant increase follows the official enforcement of the Hong Kong International Convention for the Safe and Environmentally Sound Recycling of Ships, which came into force on June 26.
The new estimate by BIMCO, a leading global shipping association, is up from a previous projection of 15,000 ships. It represents nearly twice the number of ships, and almost three times the tonnage, recycled over the last decade.
Urgent Need for Investment in Safe Recycling Yards
According to BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, Niels Rasmussen, this signals an urgent need for more investments in ship recycling yards that meet international safety and environmental standards. The estimate was based on recycling patterns between 2000 and 2019, applying average recycling rates by vessel type and age.
Ships built in the 2000s are expected to dominate scrapping activity moving forward. During 2015–2024, vessels constructed in the 1990s made up 35% of scrapped ships and 62% of DWT recycled.
South Asia Dominates Ship Recycling
From 2015 to 2024, most ship recycling took place in South Asia. Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan handled 86% of recycled DWT and 58% of vessels. Despite some projects to expand shipbreaking capacity in other regions, BIMCO believes South Asia will remain the primary hub for the foreseeable future.
Enforcement of Hong Kong Convention
The Hong Kong Convention is key to this shift, setting mandatory rules for how ships must be dismantled at the end of their service. The Convention aims to protect both the environment and the workers involved in shipbreaking. It took effect on June 26 after years of preparation, with 24 countries having ratified it.
Concerns and Criticisms
NGO Shipbreaking Platform, which tracks safety and environmental issues in the industry, has raised concerns about worker safety and environmental impact. The group reports that since 2009, around 8,221 ships were scrapped in South Asia, leading to at least 473 worker deaths and 517 injuries.
In a recent publication, the group criticised the Convention for failing to address environmental justice and human rights. According to Ingvild Jenssen, the NGO’s executive director, the Convention benefits shipping companies more than workers, by allowing them to avoid the full cost of safe and sustainable recycling.
Future Outlook
The previous record for ship recycling occurred in 2012, with about 1,800 ships and 60 million DWT dismantled. Starting in 2027, annual recycling volumes could surpass that record each year, given the large number of aging ships and tighter environmental policies.
Despite some criticisms, the Convention’s supporters argue that it brings long-overdue structure to a dangerous and often poorly regulated industry. The enforcement of the Hong Kong Convention represents a historic moment in global efforts to safeguard human health and the environment during ship recycling.
Reference: BIMCO