The Impact of Trump’s Return on Shipping Industry

As Joe Biden’s administration comes to an end in the US, the shipping industry braces for the return of Donald Trump to the White House. The future of global trade hangs in the balance, with many questions looming over how the 47th president’s policies will shape the shipping landscape.

During Trump’s previous tenure, the offshore wind sector suffered setbacks, and many are eager to see how he will deliver on his campaign promises regarding tariffs, Iran, and the war in Ukraine. The first Trump trade war with China had a significant impact on various sectors, with dry bulk, LNG, and LPG being among the most affected.

According to Clarksons Platou Securities data, shipping tonne-mile growth experienced a decline in 2018 and 2019 due to the trade war. The imposition of tariffs and protectionist policies could further disrupt trade flows and impact global shipping routes.

While some industry experts remain optimistic about the potential for increased trade volumes under Trump’s second term, concerns linger about the implications for shipping’s decarbonization efforts. The uncertainty surrounding global regulations at the International Maritime Organization (IMO) may lead to localized regulations for decarbonization.

Expert Opinions

Managing directors in the shipping industry have divergent views on Trump’s impact. Burak Akdemir of Range Shipping anticipates a recalibration of US-China relations that could benefit dry bulk trade flows. On the other hand, Khalid Hashim of Precious Shipping believes that disruptions caused by tariffs are short-term and eventually lead to increased trade.

Analysts from Sea-Intelligence warn that a lack of global regulations for decarbonization could hinder progress in the shipping industry. Hartland Shipping predicts increased volatility and uncertainty in shipping markets under Trump’s second term.

Conclusion

As the shipping industry navigates the challenges brought on by Trump’s return to office, stakeholders must remain vigilant and adaptable to changing trade dynamics. The future of global trade and shipping routes hinges on the decisions made by the 47th president and the impact of his policies on the industry.