Enhancing Forecasting Ability for Subsea Volcanic Eruptions

Scientists from the UK’s National Oceanography Centre (NOC) recently led an international team on an expedition in and around Santorini, Greece, with the aim of enhancing forecasting ability for subsea volcanic eruptions. This initiative is crucial, as hundreds of the most dangerous volcanoes on Earth are located in the ocean and are largely unmonitored, posing significant hazards to nearby coastal communities and critical infrastructure.

The explosivity of underwater volcanic eruptions is further complicated by interactions with seawater and circulating fluids within the volcanoes, making them highly unpredictable. To address this challenge, advanced underwater robots, including the NOC remotely operated vehicle (ROV) Isis, were deployed to study how circulating fluids interact with magma deep beneath the Earth’s surface.

By mapping fluid pathways connecting to magma chambers and observing their responses during volcanic events, the team aims to improve understanding of how fluid circulation influences the strength and hazard of volcanic eruptions. The recent Minoan eruption of Santorini and the 1650 eruption of nearby Kolumbo volcano in Greece serve as reminders of the catastrophic consequences of large volcanic events, such as the formation of calderas due to collapsing ground.

During the expedition, scientists investigated various types of hydrothermal venting in Santorini and Kolumbo, ranging from seeps forming underwater lakes of carbon dioxide to bubbly venting at temperatures exceeding 200ºC. The goal is to comprehend the full range of fluid flow styles and their potential impact on future volcanic activity globally.

Dr. Isobel Yeo, Marine Volcanologist and expedition lead at NOC, emphasized the importance of understanding the hazards posed by submarine volcanoes, especially following the recent explosive eruption of Hunga Volcano in 2022. This event highlighted the critical need to improve forecasting and mitigation strategies for submarine volcanic hazards.

While there are no immediate indications of risk from the volcanoes studied during the expedition, the collaborative efforts of the international team will provide essential insights into the processes governing volcanic explosivity. This work will contribute to better forecasting of volcanic hazards and enhance preparedness for future periods of volcanic unrest.

Dr. Yeo concluded by stating, “This internationally collaborative work will provide urgently needed constraints on these processes, working with our colleagues in Greece and around the world to improve our understanding of the hazards posed by some of the most dangerous volcanoes on the planet.”