Challenges Ahead for U.S. Container Ports in 2025

Despite strong growth in early 2025, U.S. container ports are bracing for significant volume declines due to new tariffs and planned shipping fees.

The ten largest U.S. container ports recorded a 9.6% year-over-year increase in inbound volume during April, following March’s 11.0% gain, according to John McCown’s latest Container Volume Observer report. However, McCown warns of impending challenges. While inbound volume grew 9.6% in the first four months of 2025, this falls short of 2024’s robust 15.2% annual growth.

McCown projects a double-digit percentage reduction in annual volume for 2025 compared to 2024, citing the combined impact of Trump Administration tariffs and the proposed USTR ship fees.

China, which accounts for approximately 40% of U.S. inbound containers, recently saw tariffs reduced from 145% to 30% for a 90-day term. Additional 10% tariffs on imports from other countries will further compound the volume reduction.

“Something in the 15% range looks like the minimal effect from those tariffs,” estimates McCown, noting that container imports likely faced a more pronounced 25% decline if the higher tariff levels had stayed in place.

Looking further ahead, volume projections become less certain, largely depending on expectations for policy changes after the 90-day tariff period.

“Tariffs and the proposed USTR ship fee plan are moving container volume related to trade lanes involving the U.S. into uncharted waters,” McCown notes. “As those lanes account for more than one quarter of container miles worldwide, there will be a ripple effect that will be felt globally.”

The impact of these changes will be felt first at West Coast ports in May, with East and Gulf Coast facilities experiencing effects through June. Following an initial volume slump in May and early June, McCown anticipates a temporary rebound that will mirror the volume and timing of the initial decline.

Adding to the complexity is the revised USTR ship fee, scheduled to take effect in October. Comments on the revised plan were due May 19. As a result, McCown suggests that further revisions to the fee plan remain possible, describing it as “another form of tariff, although it is even more blunt and nonsensical.”

“Container shipping is a system with multiple interconnecting segments,” he explains. “Anything that disturbs that equilibrium injects inefficiency and unnecessary costs into those systems.”

As the industry navigates these challenges, McCown advises that the impacts should be considered on a spectrum affecting both commerce and inflation, with increases in one typically corresponding to decreases in the other. He anticipates that significant ramifications will become apparent this summer, affecting stakeholders who have thus far remained insulated from these changes.