Temporary Rebound Expected in U.S. Import Cargo Volume, But Challenges Loom Ahead

Import cargo volume at major U.S. container ports is expected to experience a temporary rebound this month following a significant late spring decline, but will likely fall again when previously paused tariffs take effect, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

The report shows U.S. ports handled 1.95 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs) in May, representing an 11.8% drop from April and a 6.4% year-over-year decline. This marked the first year-over-year decrease since September 2023.

“The tariff situation remains highly fluid and retailers are working hard to stock up for the holiday season before the various tariffs that have been announced and paused actually take effect,” said NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold.

President Trump recently signed an executive order delaying “reciprocal” tariffs until August 1, while simultaneously announcing tariffs of up to 40% on more than a dozen countries. Questions remain about the fate of China tariffs despite a recently signed deal.

Hackett Associates Founder Ben Hackett noted that “a flurry of tariff-related announcements from the Trump administration has only served to further increase supply chain uncertainty,” adding that “the global supply chain functions best in a trade environment that is smooth and predictable.”

While June numbers have yet to be finalized, July is forecast at 2.36 million TEU, up 2.1% year-over-year. However, projections show significant declines beginning in August (down 10.4%) through November (down 21.3%), partially attributed to the impending tariffs.

The first half of 2025 is now projected to reach 12.63 million TEU, which represents a 4.5% year-over-year increase but falls below earlier forecasts made before the April tariffs announcement.