Anticipated Surge in Import Cargo Volumes as Retailers Capitalize on Tariff Reduction

Import cargo volumes at major U.S. container ports are expected to surge through the summer months as retailers rush to take advantage of temporarily reduced tariffs on Chinese goods.

The surge comes after a tumultuous period when many retailers suspended or canceled orders following the Trump administration’s implementation of a 145% tariff on Chinese imports in April. The situation improved when tariffs were subsequently reduced to 30% with a 90-day pause extending until August 12. Similarly, reciprocal tariffs on other nations have been paused until July 9 as trade negotiations continue.

“This is the busiest time of the year for retailers as they enter the back-to-school season and prepare for the fall-winter holiday season,” explains Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. “Retailers want to ensure consumers will be able to find the products they need and want at prices they can afford.”

The impact of April’s high tariffs was evident in May’s projections, with Global Port Tracker forecasting 1.91 million TEU, representing a 13.4% decrease from April and an 8.1% year-over-year decline. This marked the first year-over-year decline since September 2023.

However, with the temporary tariff reduction now in effect, June volumes are expected to rebound to 2.01 million TEU, though still down 6.2% year-over-year. July is forecast at 2.13 million TEU, down 8.1%, and August at 1.98 million TEU, down 14.7%.

Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, notes that this year’s unique circumstances will create an early peak season. “The peak for the winter holidays will come early this year, making it simultaneous with the peak for the back-to-school season,” he says. However, he warns that “if higher tariffs are not delayed again, we can expect the final four months of the year to see declining volumes of imports.”

The current forecast projects the first half of 2025 to reach 12.54 million TEU, showing a 3.7% year-over-year increase. While this represents an improvement from earlier forecasts made before the tariff pause, it still falls short of the 12.78 million TEU projection made before the April tariffs announcement.

Looking ahead, significant volume declines are expected for the remainder of 2025, with September forecast at 1.78 million TEU (down 21.8% year-over-year) and October at 1.8 million TEU (down 19.8%). These substantial decreases are partially attributed to the elevated import levels seen in late 2024, when concerns about East Coast and Gulf Coast port strikes drove increased activity.

The uncertainty surrounding post-pause tariff levels continues to create challenges for retailers and supply chain planners. Industry leaders are urging the administration to continue negotiations with trading partners to restore predictability to the supply chain.