U.S. Retail Imports Show Signs of Slowdown Amid Tariff Concerns

According to the latest data from the National Retail Federation, U.S. retailers have been frontloading imports of key products in anticipation of a potential dockworkers strike and tariff increases. However, there are now indications of a slowdown in month-to-month container volumes at the top U.S. ports.

The NRF has revised its near-term forecast in the Global Port Tracker for U.S. container import volumes, citing ongoing efforts by retailers to diversify their supply chains in response to external challenges.

Jonathan Gold, Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy at the NRF, highlighted the challenges retailers face in adjusting their supply chains quickly. He mentioned that while retailers have been frontloading some products to mitigate the impact of tariffs, this strategy has led to increased warehousing and related costs.

The Global Port Tracker has adjusted its forecasts for container volumes at major U.S. ports. The December 2024 volume forecast has been lowered by 100,000 TEU to 2.14 million TEU, while the January 2025 forecast has been reduced by 50,000 TEU to 2.11 million TEU. The NRF expects these declines to continue into February 2025 due to Lunar New Year shutdowns in China.

Despite the recent slowdown, the NRF notes that total container volumes for 2024 are on track to reach 25.5 million TEU, nearly 15 percent higher than in 2023. Strong consumer demand and low unemployment have fueled robust retail sales throughout the year.

Looking ahead, Ben Hackett, Founder of Hackett Associates, warns that port cargo could be negatively impacted if tariffs on overseas nations increase prices and deter consumer spending. However, he predicts that delayed tariffs on Canada and Mexico may have minimal immediate effects on port operations.

The NRF forecasts a return to month-over-month growth in container imports in the spring as retailers prepare for summer sales. March is expected to see a year-over-year increase of 11.1 percent, followed by April at 8.2 percent and May at 5.4 percent. However, the forecast suggests a potential decline in June container imports, signaling a possible short-lived recovery.

Overall, retailer imports are projected to reach 12.71 million TEU in the first half of 2025, representing a 3.6 percent increase over the same period in 2024.