The UK Offshore Energy Sector Faces Major Job Losses by 2030, Report Warns

A new report from Robert Gordon University has raised alarm bells about the future of the UK’s offshore oil and gas industry, predicting a significant decline in jobs by the early 2030s unless immediate action is taken. The report, titled “Striking the Balance,” outlines three workforce scenarios and highlights the need for substantial investment in the sector.

According to the report, the UK offshore energy sector will require between 125,000 and 163,000 jobs by 2030, compared to the current figure of approximately 154,000. However, the specific UK oil and gas workforce is projected to plummet from 115,000 in 2024 to between 57,000 and 71,000 by the early 2030s, translating to a loss of around 400 jobs every two weeks over the next five years.

On the flip side, the report forecasts a significant increase in the UK offshore renewables workforce, from about 39,000 in 2024 to between 84,000 and 153,000 by 2035. Despite this growth, there are concerns about the industry’s capacity to absorb the displaced oil and gas workers due to the sector’s decline.

Under a high-case scenario, workforce demand could exceed 210,000 jobs, contingent on the delivery of additional offshore wind capacity and sustained oil and gas activities akin to other European countries like Norway, Denmark, and the Netherlands. This would require a substantial increase in UK content in capital expenditure work and daily oil equivalent production by 2030.

The report also highlights the disproportionate impact on Scotland, where nearly 1 in 30 workers are employed in the offshore energy industry. If Scotland fails to capitalize on the energy transition opportunities, the workforce could shrink from 75,000 in 2024 to between 45,000 and 63,000 by the early 2030s.

Professor Paul de Leeuw, Director of the Energy Transition Institute at Robert Gordon University, emphasized the urgency for coordinated action to prevent job losses and facilitate a just transition towards net zero emissions. Failure to act swiftly could result in a 20% drop in offshore energy jobs by 2030, posing significant challenges for the UK’s energy transition goals.