Wood Mackenzie Predicts Brent Crude Oil Prices to Average $73 per Barrel in 2025

Wood Mackenzie, a leading energy research and consultancy firm, has released its latest market outlook, projecting that Brent crude oil prices will average $73.00 per barrel (bbl) in 2025. This forecast takes into account various geopolitical and economic factors that could impact the oil market in the coming years.

Factors Influencing Oil Prices

The outlook considers potential peace talks between Russia and the US regarding the Ukraine conflict, ongoing tariffs, and sanctions against Iran as key drivers of oil price movements. These factors are expected to create uncertainty in the market and influence supply and demand dynamics.

Supply and Demand Dynamics

Global oil demand is projected to increase by 1.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2025, while non-OPEC production is expected to grow by 1.5 million b/d. This supply growth outpacing demand poses challenges for OPEC+ in managing market balance.

Wood Mackenzie’s analysis assumes that OPEC+ will follow its plan to ease 2.2 million b/d of production restraint between April 2025 and September 2026. Regional demand growth is expected to be led by Asia Pacific, with China and India playing significant roles in driving growth.

Uncertainties in the Market

The forecast also considers various uncertainties, such as the potential lifting of US sanctions against Russia, the impact of existing tariffs on global GDP growth, and the effects of sanctions on Iran’s oil production. These factors could further add complexity to the oil market outlook.

Global Demand Trends

Despite these uncertainties, Wood Mackenzie anticipates a soft recovery in global industrial production, which will support the projected gains in oil demand in 2025. Asia Pacific is expected to see the highest demand growth, with China and India driving a significant portion of that growth. Non-OECD demand is also forecasted to rise, while OECD countries may experience a slight contraction in demand.