Impact of Tariffs on U.S. Import Cargo Volumes

Import cargo volumes at major U.S. container ports are poised to see their first year-over-year decline in more than 18 months, according to the latest Global Port Tracker report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates.

The decline comes as President Trump’s recent series of tariffs begin to show tangible effects on the supply chain. The measures include a minimum 10% tariff on all U.S. trading partners, reciprocal tariffs on multiple nations announced in April, and a substantial 145% tariff on China.

“We are starting to see the true impact of President Trump’s tariffs on the supply chain,” stated Jonathan Gold, NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy. He warned that the various tariffs would lead to “higher costs for businesses as well as reduced cargo volumes,” ultimately affecting consumers through increased prices and reduced product availability.

The impact is expected to be significant, with imports projected to decline by at least 20% year-over-year from June into fall 2025, potentially leading to an overall annual volume reduction exceeding 10%.

March 2025 data showed U.S. ports handled 2.15 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units (TEUs), marking a 5.5% increase from February and an 11.3% rise year-over-year. However, the outlook for coming months shows a stark reversal of this trend. May 2025 is forecast at 1.81 million TEU, representing a 12.9% year-over-year decline and ending 19 consecutive months of growth. June projections indicate volumes will fall to 1.71 million TEU, the lowest since March 2023, with a 20.2% year-over-year drop.

Despite these concerning figures, Ben Hackett, founder of Hackett Associates, stresses that reports of a broken supply chain are exaggerated. “Container carriers are indeed dropping voyages and consolidating cargo and service to ensure that their vessels are as full as possible and to maintain economies of scale as demand declines,” Hackett noted, but dismissed claims of empty terminals and mid-voyage ship diversions.

The tariffs’ impact becomes particularly clear when comparing the NRF’s current forecasts against earlier projections, revealing a significant decline in the outlook between March and May. The forecast issued in March, before the tariffs announcement, was relatively optimistic, forecasting growth through May (with May at 2.14 million TEU, up 2.8% year over year). However, the latest forecast reveals a dramatic shift, with May now expected to see a 12.9% decline year over year to 1.81 million TEU.

Similarly, June’s forecast was revised down from 2.07 million TEU (a 3.2% decline) to 1.71 million TEU (a 20.2% drop). July’s outlook also worsened considerably, from an initial projection of a 13.9% decline to a much steeper 23.4% drop. The first half of 2025 is now expected to reach 12.13 million TEU, showing only a minimal 0.3% year-over-year increase. This stands in stark contrast to pre-April tariff announcement forecasts of 12.78 million TEU, which would have represented a 5.7% growth.

Looking back, import volumes had remained elevated since mid-2024, driven first by retailers preparing for an October East and Gulf Coast ports strike, and later by anticipation of post-election tariff escalations.

The total import volume for 2024 reached 25.5 million TEU, marking a 14.7% increase from 2023 and approaching the pandemic-era record of 25.8 million TEU set in 2021.